a day ago
College football betting, odds: Biggest storylines, early best bets for Week 0
Welcome to 'Movers and Shakers' where on a weekly basis this season, we'll look back at who moved up with a big win, who shook up the college football world and how the betting market was affected by it. All before digging into the lines for the big games in the coming week.
Consider this your early-week destination for all of the biggest betting storylines every week in college football.
While no one's had a chance to shake things up yet, the offseason has seen some teams make a big move compared to where they were rated in the betting market last season.
[For all of our college football betting preview content, click here]
Movin' up
Let's see whose stock is up before the first game of the season kicks off Saturday.
No. 9 LSU
Oklahoma's 2024 was rough, but LSU closed last season as just a 6-point home favorite over the Sooners, which is indicative of a lack of market respect for the four-loss Tigers (even if they won and covered comfortably). So, it's a little optimistic that both the AP and the betting market have LSU as a top-10 team to start this season — the only school in that echelon who finished the 2024 regular season unranked.
No. 12 Illinois
Admittedly, the AP poll thinks more highly of Illinois than the betting market, but even top-20 consideration for the Illini in the betting market is a big jump from where they finished last season. With a win total of 7.5 heavily juiced to the over, Illinois is no longer considered the slightly-above-average team it was when deemed just 7.5 points better than Northwestern on a neutral field last Nov. 30.
No. 23 Texas Tech
Just inside the top-25 is how both the AP and the betting market view Texas Tech coming into the season, but you're likely not alone in thinking, 'Ummm, why?' The answer to all your questions is 'money,' and the Red Raiders have spent it, trying to improve on an 8-4 regular season.
Florida State
It couldn't have gone worse for Florida State last season, so on reputation alone, the Seminoles are considered better than the rest of the group that barely won two games last year. No, they don't have a number next to their name to start the season, but bettors know that you don't see many 2-10 teams lined inside of two touchdowns against Alabama — FSU's Week 1 opponent. The Seminoles should be much better this season.
Southern Mississippi
This is Part 1 of the most interesting thing going on in the Group of Five (G5) to start the season as the Golden Eagles go from a decrepit program to something with a difficult-to-quantify ceiling. If USM's previous team grade was 17 out of 100, how much of an upward adjustment can be made for a new regime?
Movin' down
No. 3 Ohio State
Moving down to No. 3 isn't exactly a collapse, but the Buckeyes finished the season as one of the most dominant teams in recent college football history, so, yes, losing a ton of talent — including starting QB Will Howard — and both coordinators from a national champion should result in some sort of a dip.
No. 24 Tennessee
Vols fans won't rest easy, but the betting market does think more of Tennessee than poll voters do. However, even if they're more like the 18th-best team in the country, going from the 9-seed in the College Football Playoff reflects a dip, due to less experienced talent available to head coach Josh Heupel.
Colorado
Losing Shedeur Sanders and Travis Hunter should result in a drop in market rating, so it should come as no surprise that bettors — slow to admit the Buffaloes were a good team by the end of their tenure — are back to thinking Colorado is merely 'mid.'
Jacksonville State
Rich Rodriguez has left the Gamecocks to return to West Virginia (oddly the Mountaineers' market rating has gone down as well), and the betting market seems convinced that Jacksonville State will be going from Conference USA champion to just another G5 team the common fan need not worry about.
Marshall
As for Part 2 of the drama in the Sun Belt, Marshall botched its dealings with the head coach who brought them a conference title, as Charles Huff has moved onto Southern Miss, taking much of the Thundering Herd's championship roster with him, including star quarterback Braylon Braxton. While the betting market doesn't know how far it needs to drop Marshall's rating, it knows it's much lower than last year.
Best bets for Week 0's big games
For Week 0, given we've been without meaningful football for months, let's set the bar for what's considered 'big' as low as possible. If you're playing another FBS team on Saturday, it's a big game.
Odds courtesy of BetMGM.
No. 22 Iowa State vs. No. 17 Kansas State (-3, 49.5)
After sitting at Kansas State -3.5 for much of the offseason, this line skipped up to -4, before coming back down to a flat field goal.
Both teams bring back their starting quarterback — making each a conference title contender — but Kansas State has more returning production, and if the first game of the season devolves into a matchup of who is better at the basics, QB Avery Johnson and tailback Dylan Edwards can wreak havoc on a Cyclones defense that got run through by Cam Skattebo in the 2024 Big 12 title game.
While there's an understandable temptation to take Iowa State head coach Matt Campbell in the role of underdog, my projections agreed more with the move to -4 than they do with the line settling back -3.
Pick: Kansas State -3
Fresno State at Kansas (-12.5, 50.5)
This line opened Kansas -14, but interest in Fresno State has brought it off the key number.
Bettors might have liked that two-time FCS national champion head coach Matt Entz has tabbed E.J. Warner (Kurt's son, at his third school) as the starting quarterback, but Kansas (projected for 6.5 wins) has two 'Game of the Year' lookahead lines, and -12.5 here is more in line with its status as underdogs to both Missouri and Kansas State.
Late to the party to take the full two touchdowns, and unwilling to lay the points against the new energy in Fresno, we'll exercise our right to pass — one main advantage we have over the sportsbooks who are compelled to offer the game.
Pick: Pass
Sam Houston State at Western Kentucky (-10, 60.5)
To get to this number, Sam Houston State's market rating would need to benefit from an above-average strength of schedule in Conference USA. While they'll be taking an 'L' against Texas, an otherwise mediocre non-conference slate and missing Liberty in league play isn't enough to give the Bearkats the benefit of the doubt there.
Perhaps that's why this line has gone up from -8.5, but Clay Helton has reloaded, and the Hilltoppers are the second choice in the conference title odds for a reason. With both schedules relatively equal, a team projected for 7.5 wins hosting one that is hoping to crawl over 4.5, should be closer to a two-touchdown favorite. Let's lay it with the established program, since Sam Houston State lost its longtime head coach, K.C. Keeler, replacing him with the underwhelming Phil Longo.
Pick: Western Kentucky -10
Stanford at Hawaii (-2.5, 52.5)
If we wrote and published this in July, it would start with confusion about why Hawaii wasn't favored, since Stanford opened as road chalk despite a season win total that's set at 3.5 and juiced to the under. That's not terrible out of the ACC, but Hawaii is favored to be bowl eligible, and playing on the island has never been an easy trip for visiting teams.
Andrew Luck and Frank Reich might have the turnaround started already, but even a 2.5-point spread requires Stanford to get the biggest rating bump due to strength of schedule in the ACC, and the smallest for Hawaii of any Mountain West team.
Since we're loathe to lose a game by giving away a couple points we could have had earlier, we'll play the moneyline at -130, since our projections still show value on the Rainbow Warriors (who should have opened closer to -150 in the first place).
Pick: Hawaii ML (-130)
